Neuravox-Foundation/agric_risk_index

Monthly agricultural risk index (DARS) for five districts in Northern Uganda. Python pipeline plus a static Cloudflare Pages dashboard. # DAVARS **District Agricultural Volatility and Adaptive Risk System** A monthly agricultural risk index for five districts in Northern Uganda (Gulu, Arua, Lira, Oyam, Nebbi). DAVARS combines price volatility, climate stress, production instability, conflict and disaster shocks, and input cost pressure into a single composite score from 0 to 100 per district-month. When the score crosses a district-specific threshold, the month is flagged high risk: a period when deploying growth capital into youth agribusinesses is statistically more likely to produce income losses. **Live dashboard: davars.org** ## What is in this repo ``` src/ Python pipeline that computes the index run_pipeline.py Entry point: runs the full pipeline end to end data_cleaned/ Harmonized input data (prices, climate, yields, shocks, costs) data_processed/ Pipeline output (DARS scores and sub-index scores) outputs/ Backtests, bulletins, charts, and diagnostic reports docs/ Methodology, data coverage, and decision protocol notes site/ The static web dashboard (hosted on Cloudflare Pages) tests/ Pipeline tests ``` ## The index DARS is a weighted blend of five sub-indices: | Component | Weight | Data source | Coverage | |-----------|:------:|-------------|----------| | Commodity Volatility (CVI) | 25% | WFP VAM price data | Gulu, Arua, Lira only | | Climate Stress (CSI) | 25% | NASA POWER | All districts | | Yield Instability (YII) | 20% | FAOSTAT national crops | All districts, national signal | | Shock Intensity (SII) | 20% | ACLED and disaster records | All districts | | Input Cost Pressure (ICPI) | 10% | IFDC fertilizer data | All districts, national signal | Full methodology is in `docs/index_methodology.md`. **Limitations.** Oyam and Nebbi have no commodity price data, so their scores use four components and are flagged `missing_price_component`. YII, ICPI, and the conflict part of SII are national s …