ODOU/ampacity-westafrica-climate

Climate change impacts on transmission line ampacity in West Africa — analysis code # Climate change impacts on transmission line ampacity in West Africa Reproducible analysis pipeline for assessing how projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation reshape the thermal current-carrying capacity (ampacity) of overhead transmission lines across West Africa, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, for the BISON ACSR 382-AL1/49-ST1A conductor. > This repository contains the **code and summary results**. The underlying climate data (ERA5, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) is not redistributed — see `DATA.md` for access. ## Key findings | Region | Historical mean | Mid-century change (SSP5-8.5) | Notable seasonal signal | |---------------|-----------------|-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | **Guinea** | 962 A | +20.7 % | Uniform gains (+17–24 %) driven by monsoon wind intensification | | **Sahelian** | 1 147 A | +1.2 % (annual) | **Winter decline of −4.9 %** — Harmattan weakening | | **Soudanian** | 1 041 A | +7.7 % | Intermediate pattern, slight winter decline | Wind-speed evolution — not temperature — is the leading driver of projected ampacity change across West Africa. Pearson correlation between daily ampacity and 10 m wind speed reaches **+0.7 to +0.9** over most of the domain. This contrasts with the temperature-dominated regime documented for mid-latitude regions. ## Repository layout ``` . ├── src/ — analysis pipeline (pure Python) │ ├── ampacity_calculator.py core physics (Bartos / Churchill-Bernstein / IEEE 738) │ ├── calculate_era5_ampacity.py historical (1985–2014) from ERA5 │ ├── calculate_era5_ampacity_less_heavy.py │ ├── calculate_long_term_ampacity.py future (2015–2070) from NEX-GDDP │ ├── calculate_long_term_ampacity_simple.py │ ├── additional_analyses.py post-p …