OmaraI/Mathematical-Modelling---MSc

Master of Science in Bioinformatics (2019-2022). This was a group project to model the Ebola epidemic in Liberia in 2014 ## Infectious Disease Dynamics and Mathematical Modelling Assignment A mini project work done during my MSc degree in Makerere University (2019-2022). This was a group project to model the Ebola virus outbreak in Liberia in 2014 ### Group Members: 1. Omara Isaac Emmanuel 2. Lukyamuzi Edward 3. Nabirye Stella #### Introduction Disease control is a very complex problem for health officers, this is why mathematical models are used to predict and understand diseases. The transmission of Ebola virus is better described by a SEIR model. This is because it takes a certain time for an infected individual to become infectious. During that period of time, such individuals are in the exposed/latent compartment.Discrete SEIR time models to Ebola epidemics are available but in our work, we are demonstrating continuous time model, which is more common with respect to Ebola modeling. It also turns out that in available Ebola studies with SEIR models, the population is assumed to be constant. This assumption is far from being true in West African countries. For example, in Liberia, the birth rate is approximately four times the death rate. Motivated by this fact, we aim is to stimulate the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus in Liberia through an appropriate SEIR model with vital dynamics, which takes into account the demographic effects on the population.