Osman1435/Price-forcast-of-Tomatoes-in-Ashanti-Region

The quarterly prices of tomatoes between the years of 1995 to 2020 was used to predict the prices in quarters for the next six years. # Price-forcast-of-Tomatoes-in-Ashanti-Region In this project, we aim to - Determine the components of time series possessed by the quarterly prices of tomatoes in the Ashanti region of Ghana. - compare ARIMA and SARIMA models to find out which best predicts the prices of tomatoes in the Ashanti region of Ghana. - predict the prices in quarters for the next six years. ## Data The data for this study was collected on the demand of tomato per crate or box in Ashanti Region between the period 1995 and 2020 from Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA). ## Tools Used ``` -Word -Excel -R-(R Development Core Team 2016) -ARIMA -SARIMA ``` ## Findings The model indicated that tomato prices would rise in 2024, with the second quarter delivering the highest price. However, following a significant price increase in the second quarter, prices are predicted to fall in both the third and fourth quarters of 2024, everything else being equal. This observation was the pricing pattern in all second quarters during the time under consideration. ## Conclusion The Seasonal ARIMA (3, 0, 1) (0,0,1) [4] emerged as the best model because the data had some seasonality in it making it the most suitable relative to the ARIMA models.