Pheezo-SQ/nigeria-labour-statistics-integrity-review

Analysis of Nigeria's unemployment data credibility gap — comparing NBS old methodology, NBS ILO-aligned methodology, and World Bank modelled estimates (2015–2025). Built with Python and Power BI. # Nigeria Labour Statistics Integrity Review ## NBS vs ILO Methodology Comparison (2015–2025) **Analyst:** Philip Ohejira | **Project:** 11 of 14 | **Date:** June 2026 **Tools:** Python · Power BI · Matplotlib · Seaborn **Data Sources:** NBS NLFS Reports · World Bank WDI · FRED · Manufacturers Association of Nigeria --- ## Problem Statement In April 2023, Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics changed its unemployment methodology to align with ILO guidelines. The old methodology counted anyone working **under 20 hours per week** as unemployed. The new methodology counts anyone who worked **at least 1 hour** in the previous seven days as employed. This single definitional change caused Nigeria's official unemployment rate to fall from **33.3% (Q4 2020)** to **4.1% (Q1 2023)** — a drop of 29.2 percentage points — with no corresponding job creation. Meanwhile, 767 manufacturing companies shut down in 2023 alone (Manufacturers Association of Nigeria), and the misery index hit 38.3% in Q2 2024. This project builds all three unemployment series side by side, exposes the methodology gap, and contextualises the official statistics against real economy indicators. --- ## Objectives 1. Build and compare three unemployment series: NBS old methodology, NBS new ILO methodology, and World Bank modelled estimate 2. Quantify the definitional gap — how much of the rate change is methodology vs reality 3. Analyse youth unemployment, urban/rural splits, and underemployment trends 4. Contextualise official statistics against factory closures and the misery index 5. Expose the informal employment reality: 93.5% of Nigerian workers in 2025 --- ## Data Sources | Source | Dataset | Period | Format | |---|---|---|---| | NBS NLFS (nigerianstat.gov.ng) | Quarterly unemployment — old methodology | Q1 2015–Q4 2020 | CSV | | NBS NLFS (nigerianstat.gov.ng) | Quarterly unemployment — new ILO methodology | Q4 2022–Q2 2024 | CSV | | World Bank WDI / FRED | ILO modelled unemployment esti …