PiDelport/SA-COVID-19-projections

South Africa COVID-19 data and projections > **⚠️ Disclaimer:** I am not a medical professional or epidemiologist. > This analysis is not necessarily reliable. > > See the official [NICD] and [SA Coronavirus] websites for reliable information. [NICD]: nicd.ac.za [SA Coronavirus]: sacoronavirus.co.za # South Africa COVID-19 data and projections This analysis of public data about the [2020 coronavirus pandemic in South Africa] tries to answer two questions: [2020 coronavirus pandemic in South Africa]: en.wikipedia.org 1. Where are we now? Is the infection slowing down? Are our efforts working? 2. What's ahead? When will the infection peak, and when might it be over? > ℹ️ **Note:** You can click on charts below to see bigger interactive versions on Google Sheets, > along with the underlying data and calculations. ## Where are we now? We can expect that infections will roughly follow a [logistic growth curve], so we can try to visualise where we are relative to that curve's inflection point, or midpoint. [logistic growth curve]: calculus.subwiki.org ### Growth factor > 💡️ Video explanation: "[Exponential growth and epidemics]" by 3Blue1Brown [Exponential growth and epidemics]: youtube.com The first way to look at this is to visualise the growth factor, which is the second derivative (rate of change of rate of change) of the total cases over time, or the ratio between new cases each day. * **Growth factor > 1** means we are before the inflection point, in the exponential growth phase. * **Growth factor = 1** means we are crossing inflection point, and growth is stabilising. Ideally, this should be the half-way mark, at roughly half the number of cases that the total will eventually grow to, and half the number of days from the first infection to the peak. * **Growth factor 💡️ Video explanation: "[How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19]" by MinutePhysics [Ho …