qais-altloa/Egypt-Food-Crisis

**C-DE211: Data Analysis — Project 3** > Faculty of Computing & Information Sciences, Egypt University of Informatics (EUI) · Spring 2026 --- ## Overview This project investigates how Egypt's two major currency devaluations — November 2016 and the 2022 series — transmitted into retail food prices and ultimately into food security deterioration for 105 million people. Using 16,234 monthly WFP price records, WFP market metadata, and FAO annual food security indicators, it tests three formal hypotheses and builds a predictive regression model. **The short answer:** Egypt's food crisis is fundamentally a currency problem. When the pound falls, the cost of every imported calorie rises immediately — and the data shows this hits the entire food basket simultaneously, not just staples. --- ## Key Results | Hypothesis / Model | Test | Result | |---|---|---| | H1 — 2016 devaluation raised food prices | Mann-Whitney U | **p = 0.000416 ✓ Supported** | | H1 — 2022 devaluation raised food prices | Mann-Whitney U | **p = 0.008212 ✓ Supported** | | H2 — Cairo prices exceed national average | Mann-Whitney U | **All 12 staples ✓ Supported** | | H3 — Staples inflate faster than non-staples | One-Way ANOVA | **p = 0.3094 ✗ Not Supported** | | Price prediction model | Linear Regression | **R² = 0.9962 ✓ Excellent fit** | **Key numbers to know:** - Undernourishment rate: 4.9% (2010) → **9.4% (2024)** — near doubling - Severe food insecurity: ~7% (2019) → **13.4% (2024)** - Cereal import dependency peaked at **51%** (2019–2020) - Sunflower oil: 5 EGP (2010) → 23 EGP (post-2016) → **41 EGP (post-2022)** - Sugar peaked at **~46 EGP** (2024) - Wheat flour held at ~7 EGP until 2022, then rose to **~13 EGP** (subsidy effect) - Staple mean monthly inflation: **2.41%** · Non-staple: **1.77%** (statistically indistinguishable) - Most commodity Spearman correlations: **r > 0.90** (one dominant latent factor: the exchange rate) --- ## Project Structure ``` ├── Egypt_Food_Crisis_Analysis_ …