raubreywhite/projected_treatment_capacity_needs_in_sierra_leone_ebola

White RA, MacDonald E, de Blasio BF, Nygård K, Vold L, Røttingen J. Projected Treatment Capacity Needs in Sierra Leone. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2015 Jan 30 . Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3c3477556808e44cf41d2511b21dc29f. # Projected Treatment Capacity Needs in Sierra Leone (Ebola) ## Article currents.plos.org ### Citation White RA, MacDonald E, de Blasio BF, Nygård K, Vold L, Røttingen J. Projected Treatment Capacity Needs in Sierra Leone. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2015 Jan 30 . Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3c3477556808e44cf41d2511b21dc29f. ### Authors Richard A White - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway Emily MacDonald - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway Karin Nygård - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway Line Vold - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway John-Arne Røttingen - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway ### Background The ongoing outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa requires immediate and sustained input from the international community in order to curb transmission. The CDC has produced a model that indicates that to end the outbreak by pushing the reproductive number below one, 25% of the patients must be placed in an Ebola Treatment Unit (ETC) and 45% must be isolated in community settings in which risk of disease transmission is reduced and safe burials are provided. In order to provide firmer targets for the international response in Sierra Leone, we estimated the national and international personnel and treatment capacity that may be required to reach these percentages. ### Methods We developed a compartmental SEIR model that was fitted to WHO data and local data allowing the reproductive number to change every 8 weeks to forecast the progression of the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone. We used the previously estimated 2.5x correction factor estimated by the CDC to correct for underreporting. Number of personnel required to provide treatment for the predicted number of cases was estimated using UNMEER a …