redecon/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia Selam Analytics has developed Ethiopia’s first integrated financial inclusion forecasting system. This project supports a consortium of development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia by providing evidence‑based forecasts of **Access** (account ownership) and **Usage** (digital payment adoption) for 2025–2027. The system combines enriched datasets, event impact modeling, forecasting methodologies, and an interactive dashboard to answer the consortium’s key questions: - What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia? - How do events affect inclusion outcomes? - What are projected rates for 2025–2027? --- ## Project Structure ```bash ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original datasets │ ├── processed/ # Enriched unified dataset │ └── enrichment_log.md # Documentation of added records ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task_2_exploratory_analysis.ipynb │ ├── task_3_event_impact_modeling.ipynb │ ├── task_4_forecasting.ipynb │ └── interim_report.ipynb ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard application ├── reports/ │ ├── interim_report.md │ └── final_report.md ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` --- --- ## Methodology Overview 1. **Data Enrichment** Unified schema integrating observations, events, impact links, and targets. Added records for female account ownership, infrastructure indicators (mobile penetration, 4G coverage, ATM density), and policy milestones (NFIS‑II update). 2. **Exploratory Analysis** Visualized account ownership trajectory, gender gaps, mobile money adoption, digital payment usage, and infrastructure trends. Event timeline analysis contextualized changes. 3. **Event Impact Modeling** Built an Event‑Indicator Association Matrix linking events to indicators. Validated Telebirr’s impact against observed Findex data; benchmarked Safaricom and M‑Pesa impacts using comparable …