redietwogayehu/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia ## Project Overview This project builds a forecasting system to track Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using financial inclusion indicators, event impact modeling, forecasting techniques, and an interactive Streamlit dashboard. The project was developed for **Selam Analytics**, supporting a consortium of stakeholders including: - Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) - Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) - National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) The objective is to understand: - What factors drive financial inclusion growth in Ethiopia - How policies, product launches, and infrastructure investments influence inclusion outcomes - How financial inclusion indicators may evolve between **2025 and 2027** The analysis follows the **World Bank Global Findex Framework**, focusing on two core financial inclusion dimensions: ## Financial Inclusion Dimensions ### 1. Access **Account Ownership Rate** Percentage of adults (15+) who own an account at a financial institution or use mobile money. ### 2. Usage **Digital Payment Adoption** Percentage of adults using digital payments through mobile money, cards, or digital financial services. --- # Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ └── reference_codes.xlsx │ │ │ └── processed/ │ ├── enriched_financial_inclusion.csv │ ├── event_impact_summary.csv │ ├── event_indicator_matrix.csv │ ├── access_forecast_2025_2027.csv │ ├── usage_forecast_2025_2027.csv │ └── financial_inclusion_forecasts.csv │ ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 01_data_exploration.ipynb │ ├── 02_eda_financial_inclusion_analysis.ipynb │ └── 03_forecasting_models.ipynb │ ├── reports/ │ ├── data_quality_assessment.md │ ├── data_enrichment_log.md │ ├── task3_event_impact_methodology.md │ └── figures/ │ ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py │ ├── models/ │ ├── requirements.txt │ └── README.md ``` - …