rick-a-commits/ghana-maize-price-assessment

# Ghana Maize Price Forecasting A data science project investigating whether the unusually low maize prices seen in Ghana during Q1 2026 represented a structural market shift or a temporary anomaly — motivated by a real conversation with a family member in the maize business. --- ## Background Maize is a staple commodity in Ghana, with prices following a well-established seasonal cycle: rising during the lean season (peaking around March–April) and falling sharply after the main harvest (September). In Q1 2026 — a period when prices would normally be at their seasonal peak — prices were instead unusually low, prompting the question: *is something fundamentally changing in this market, or is this a transient shock?* This project uses historical data and machine learning to answer that question. --- ## Project Structure ``` ghana-maize-predictor/ │ ├── EDA.ipynb # Exploratory data analysis ├── Forecasting.ipynb # XGBoost forecasting model ├── full_df.csv # Merged dataset output from EDA │ ├── ghana_maize_prices.xlsx # Monthly maize prices (GHS per 100kg) ├── Maize_Production_Ghana.xlsx # Annual maize production (tons) ├── Maize_Imports_-_Ghana.xlsx # Monthly maize imports (tons) ├── Ghana_Inflation_History.xlsx # Monthly YoY inflation (%) │ └── requirements.txt # Python dependencies ``` --- ## Data Sources | Dataset | Description | Period | |---|---|---| | Maize Prices | Monthly price per 100kg bag in Ghana Cedis | 2019 – 2026 | | Maize Production | Annual domestic production converted to tons | 2019 – 2026 | | Maize Imports | Monthly import volumes converted to tons | 2019 – 2026 | | Inflation | Year-on-year inflation percentage | 2019 – 2026 | The four datasets are merged on Year and Month in the EDA notebook and saved as `full_df.csv` for use in the forecasting notebook. --- ## Methodology ### EDA (`EDA.ipynb`) - Merges price, production, import, and i …