ruphus11/African-Malaria-Incidents

Analysis of Malaria incidents per 1000 population from 2000 to 2024 # Africa's Malaria Burden: Two Decades of Data (2000-2024) A data storytelling project exploring how malaria incidence across Africa has changed between 2000 and 2024 — where progress has been made, where it has stalled, and which countries tell the most striking stories. ## Research Questions 1. Which region is most affected by malaria? 2. Has progress against malaria continued, or has it stalled? 3. Which countries improved or worsened the most between 2000 and 2024, and why? ## Data Source - **Incidence data**: Our World in Data, sourced originally from the World Bank indicator SH.MLR.INCD.P3 - **Coverage**: 49 African countries, 2000-2024 - **Metric**: Malaria incidence per 1,000 population *at risk* (not total population) — new cases per year Note: not every country has data for every year — some reporting gaps exist in the original data (e.g. Algeria's 2024 figure is missing). These gaps are preserved rather than filled in, and shown as blank cells where relevant. ## Key Findings - **Continental trend**: Incidence rose slightly in the early 2000s, declined sharply through roughly 2012, and has since plateaued — progress has stalled rather than continued in recent years. - **Regional divide**: West, Central, and East African countries carry a substantially higher burden than North and Southern African countries. - **Most countries improved**: Comparing 2000 to 2024, the majority of countries reduced their incidence. Madagascar is the clear exception, worsening significantly — driven largely by tropical cyclones (notably Cyclone Freddy, 2023) damaging health infrastructure and expanding mosquito breeding grounds. - **Rwanda's resurgence**: Despite long-term improvement, Rwanda saw a sharp rise in incidence around 2016-2017, linked to insecticide resistance, a shift toward outdoor-biting mosquitoes, and climate-driven habitat expansion. - **Distributional shift (2014 vs 2024)**: The worst-affected countries (360+ incidence) disappeared entirely by 2024 — …