S-ABDUL-AI/oil-price-shock-transmission

Interactive econometric dashboard exploring oil price shock transmission into Ghana's public debt (1983–2019). Johansen cointegration, VAR/VECM, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition built from MSc Economics thesis research. # Oil Price Shock Transmission Dashboard ### Interactive Econometric Tool — MSc Economics Thesis, KNUST 2022 **Interactive econometric research tool exploring oil price shock transmission into public debt dynamics** --- ## The Research Question > *Do oil price shocks have a statistically significant long-run relationship with Ghana's public debt — and if so, through which channel?* This dashboard makes my **MSc Economics thesis** (*Oil Price Shocks and Public Debt: Empirical Evidence from Ghana*, KNUST 2022) fully interactive. Users can explore the full econometric pipeline — unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions — across three debt models using Ghana annual time-series data 1983–2019. --- ## Thesis Summary | Item | Detail | |---|---| | **Institution** | Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Ghana | | **Year** | 2022 | | **Methods** | Johansen Cointegration, VECM, IRF, FEVD | | **Data** | Ghana annual macro series 1983–2019 (37 observations) | | **Variables** | Public debt, domestic debt, external debt, oil price (Brent), inflation, REER, 91-day T-bill rate | ### Key Findings | Finding | Result | |---|---| | All variables integrated | I(1) — confirmed via ADF test | | Public debt cointegrated with oil | Yes — 1 cointegrating vector (Johansen, 5%) | | External debt cointegrated with oil | Yes — 1 cointegrating vector (Johansen, 5%) | | Domestic debt cointegrated with oil | No — consistent with absence of external channel | | Public debt IRF to oil shock | **Negative in periods 1–3, then recovers** | | Oil → % of public debt variance (FEVD) | **~1.4%** at 10-period horizon | | Oil → % of external debt variance (FEVD) | **~4.4%** at 10-period horizon | ### Economic Interpretation A positive oil price shock **initially reduces** Ghana's public debt — counterintuitive for an oil importer, but explained by a **terms-of-trade mechanism**: rising oil prices are accompanied by comm …