SalahBadreddine/Rainfall-vs-Demand-Algeria-2030

A Time Series Analysis (ARIMA/SARIMA) project evaluating the intersection of rainfall supply and municipal water demand in Algeria. # Time Series Analysis of Algeria Water Security ## Project Objective This project addresses a critical subject-matter question: **"Will Algeria's water demand exceed its natural rainfall supply by 2030?"** The analysis utilizes a dual-series approach to compare environmental supply against socio-economic demand, providing a data-driven outlook on regional water stress. ## 📂 Data & Environment Setup This project is built using **R**. To ensure the analysis runs correctly, please follow these steps: ### How to Run: 1. **Upload Data:** Open the `.ipynb` notebook and upload the following two CSV files to the **Files** sidebar in Colab: - `algeria-rainfall-timeseries.csv` (1st Series) - `algeria-water-demand-annual.csv` (2ns Series) 2. **Execute:** Select **Runtime > Run All**. 3. **Libraries:** The notebook automatically handles the installation of required packages (`tseries`, `forecast`, `ggplot2`, `randtests`, etc.). ## 📊 Methodology * **Primary Analysis (Rainfall):** Detailed ARIMA/SARIMA modeling including Box-Jenkins specification, stationarity testing (ADF), and rigorous residual diagnostics (Shapiro-Wilk, Runs Test). * **Secondary Analysis (Demand):** Trend-based modeling of historical water withdrawal data. * **Synthesis:** Integration of both forecasts to identify the "Intersection Point" where demand risks outstripping natural supply. ## 📈 Key Visuals The report prioritizes visual evidence, featuring: * Time Series Decomposition (Trend/Seasonality/Remainder). * ACF/PACF plots for model identification. * Residual distribution and normality plots for model validation. * A final Comparison Forecast (Supply vs. Demand).