samuelselasi/financial-dev-agri-productivity-ghana

The Effect of Financial Development on Agricultural Productivity in Ghana # Financial Development and Agricultural Productivity in Ghana **An Empirical Analysis Using the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach** --- ## Project Overview This repository contains the full data processing and econometric analysis pipeline for the study **“The Effect of Financial Development on Agricultural Productivity in Ghana.”** The analysis investigates both the short-run and long-run relationships between financial development indicators and agricultural output using the **Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing** methodology. The entire workflow—from raw data acquisition to model estimation and diagnostics—is automated and reproducible through R scripts. --- ## Background Agriculture remains a major pillar of Ghana’s economy, serving as a primary source of livelihood and a driver of growth. Financial development, through improved access to credit, efficient intermediation, and capital formation, can significantly influence agricultural productivity. This study aims to empirically examine: 1. The short-run and long-run effects of financial development on agricultural output. 2. The direction of causality between financial development and agricultural productivity. 3. The stability and robustness of the dynamic relationship between financial and agricultural sectors. --- ## Data Description | Source | Variables | Code / Indicator | |---------|------------|------------------| | **World Bank (WDI)** | Agricultural Value Added (constant 2015 USD) | `NV.AGR.TOTL.KD` | | | Domestic Credit to Private Sector (% of GDP) | `FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS` | | | Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP) | `NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS` | | | Inflation (Consumer Prices, annual %) | `FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG` | | | Official Exchange Rate (LCU per USD) | `PA.NUS.FCRF` | | | Employment in Agriculture (% of total) | `SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS` | | **FAOSTAT** | Agricultural Labour Force Share (%) | from `agri_labour.csv` | | **Bank of Ghana / IMF / Custom** | Exchange Rate & Inflation (monthly averages) | from `e …