selam-codes/ethiopia-forecast

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia A forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods. Built for a consortium of development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. ## Project Overview This project forecasts Ethiopia's progress on two core dimensions of financial inclusion as defined by the World Bank's Global Findex: - **Access** — Account Ownership Rate (% of adults 15+ with an account) - **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption Rate (% of adults who made/received digital payments) ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ │ └── reference_codes.csv │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data ├── notebooks/ │ ├── task1_data_exploration_enrichment.ipynb │ └── task2_eda.ipynb ├── src/ │ ├── __init__.py │ └── data_utils.py ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py ├── tests/ │ └── __init__.py ├── models/ ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ │ ├── interim_report.md │ └── interim_report.pdf ├── requirements.txt ├── README.md └── .gitignore ``` ## Setup & Installation ```bash # Clone the repository git clone cd ethiopia-fi-forecast # Create virtual environment python -m venv venv source venv/bin/activate # On macOS/Linux # Install dependencies pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ## Running Notebooks ```bash jupyter notebook notebooks/ ``` ## Running the Dashboard ```bash streamlit run dashboard/app.py ``` ## Data Schema The dataset uses a unified schema where all records share the same structure. The `record_type` field indicates how to interpret each row: | record_type | Count | Description | |-------------|-------|-------------| | observation | 30 | Measured values (Findex surveys, operator reports, infrastructure data) | | event | 10 | Policies, product launches, market entries …