Sezibra/conflict-network-analysis

Social network analysis of armed group interactions during the Ethiopia/Tigray conflict (2020-2022), using UCDP data. # Conflict Actor Network Analysis Social network analysis of armed group interactions during the Ethiopia/Tigray conflict (November 2020 to November 2022), using UCDP georeferenced event data. ## Navigation | Section | Description | |---------|-------------| | Motivation | Why network analysis matters for conflict research | | Key Findings | Main results across all three notebooks | | Data | Two UCDP datasets covering 1,764 conflict events | | Methods | Graph construction, centrality analysis, community detection, temporal snapshots | | Results in Detail | Figures and interpretation for each analytical step | | Limitations | Honest assessment of constraints | | Notebooks | Three-notebook analytical progression | | How to Reproduce | Setup and replication instructions | | References | Academic sources | ## Motivation Traditional conflict analysis treats each armed group as an independent unit and studies their attributes: size, ideology, capabilities. Network analysis takes a different approach. It studies the relationships between groups, asking who fights whom, how often, and how that structure changes over time. This matters because a group's behavior often depends on its position in the broader web of conflict relationships. Metternich et al. (2013) showed that the structure of antigovernment networks predicts conflictual behavior. Lilja (2012) found that rebel group network structure influences flexibility in peace negotiations. Kramer (2017) argued that network position shapes armed group behavior because it determines information flow, resource access, and strategic options. This project applies network methods to the Ethiopia/Tigray conflict (November 2020 to November 2022), building on the same case study used in Project 1 (geospatial analysis). It constructs conflict actor networks from UCDP event data, tracks how network structure evolves across four conflict phases, and tests whether an actor's network position relates to its violence against civil …