ShehabEdean/chehili-alert

48-hour Saharan dust storm predictor for Algerian cities using XGBoost and open meteorological data. # 🌪️ Chehili Alert **48-hour Saharan dust storm predictor for Algerian cities.** --- ## The Problem Algerian cities like Algiers, Oran, and Constantine are hit by **Saharan dust storms** (*Sirocco / Chehili*) that: - Shut down airports and ports - Spike asthma hospital admissions by 200–400% - Reduce solar farm output and damage agriculture There is **no open-source early warning tool** for Algerian urban centers. Hospitals and logistics operators react *after* the dust arrives. ## The Solution A machine learning pipeline that predicts **PM10 spikes >150 µg/m³** 24–48 hours ahead using: - **OpenAQ** ground-station air quality data - **NASA MERRA-2** aerosol optical depth (AOD) - **OpenWeatherMap** wind speed, direction, temperature, humidity Deployed as an interactive Streamlit app with a risk gauge and Algeria map. ## Live Demo 🌐 **chehili-alert.streamlit.app** ## Data Sources | Source | Variables | Coverage | |--------|-----------|----------| | OpenAQ | PM10, PM2.5 | Algiers, Oran, Constantine (2023–2024) | | NASA POWER / MERRA-2 | AOD, dust column mass density | 0.5° lat/lon grid | | OpenWeatherMap | Wind, temp, humidity, pressure | City-level hourly | ## Model - **Algorithm:** XGBoost Classifier (one per region) - **Target:** Dust spike in next 48h (PM10 > 50 µg/m³) - **Coverage:** 9 Algerian cities — 🌊 Coastal (Algiers, Oran) · ⛰️ Inland (Constantine, Laghouat, Biskra) · 🏜️ Saharan (Ouargla, Adrar, Tindouf, Bechar) - **Key Features:** - Lagged PM10 (1d, 2d, 3d, 7d) - Saharan Surge Index: wind speed > 3.5 m/s from 120°–270° - Temperature differential (day/night) - Seasonal sine/cosine encoding - **Per-city models:** Separate XGBoost per region; Algiers & Oran share a coastal model, Sahara cities share a desert model - **Performance (H2 2025/H1 2026 test set):** | City | Region | Model | F1 | Precision | Recall | |------|--------|-------|------|-----------|--------| | Algiers | 🌊 Coastal | Coastal | **0.39** | 0.29 | 0.61 | | Oran | …