Shimanga/Effect-of-Rainfall-Variability-on-Maize-Yield-in-Zambia

Two-dataset analysis of rainfall variability and maize yield across 10 Zambian provinces. Yield panel (1986–2013): correlation, regression, and rainfall efficiency metrics. Rainfall dataset (44 seasons, 1981–2024): October planting window trends, monthly patterns, and provincial vulnerability analysis. Python | SQL | Excel # Rainfall Variability and Its Effect on Maize Yield in Zambia (1986-2013) A hypothesis-driven investigation into climate-agriculture relationships. It demonstrates correlation/regression analysis, monthly pattern detection, efficiency metrics, and translation of null results into policy research agendas. This study evaluates how rainfall variability influences maize yield across ten provinces of Zambia. The analysis tests whether total seasonal rainfall explains yield variation, or whether provincial differences and rainfall patterns provide stronger explanatory value. ## Table of Contents - Research Questions - Data Summary - Dataset Structure - Summary Statistics - Results - Regression Analysis - Trends Over Time - Conclusions & Implications - Repository Structure --- ## Research Questions 1. To what extent does total seasonal rainfall explain variability in maize yield across provinces? 2. How do provincial differences in rainfall patterns relate to maize yield responses? 3. Which provinces are most vulnerable to rainfall variability and drought conditions? --- ## Data Summary - **Time period (yield):** 1986-2013 - **Time period (rainfall):** 1981-2026 - **Provinces analyzed:** 10 (including Muchinga) - **Observations:** 454 records (after filtering zero yields) - **Rainfall range:** 445 mm - 1,537 mm (seasonal total) - **Yield range:** 0.19 - 3.58 t/ha ### Data Constraints | Limitation | Impact | |------------|--------| | Missing yield data (2008-2010) | These years excluded from analysis | | Muchinga province formed in 2011 | Only 3 years available; limited reliability | | Zero yield records removed | Treated as missing data | | Seasonal yield data aggregation | Cannot directly correlate monthly rainfall with yield | ### Data Validation and Revision - Initial dataset contained inconsistencies from query extraction - Dataset was rebuilt and revalidated - All results in this analysis are based on the corrected dataset --- ## Dataset Structure ### …