sotiamaestro/augur-ledger

Public append-only forecast ledger for AUGUR (Horn of Africa event-forecasting demo) # AUGUR forecast ledger This is the public, append-only forecast ledger of AUGUR, an event-forecasting architecture demonstration covering the Horn of Africa: every forecast is written to `forecasts/` in the same pipeline run that creates it, before its forecast window opens. To verify a forecast, compare the `prompt_sha256` and probability shown in the AUGUR interface with the values in that day's JSON file, and check this repository's commit history to confirm the file landed before the forecast's `window_start`. From 2026-07-11 onward each entry also carries a `samples` array — the individual probabilities from the 5-sample ensemble whose median is the stored `probability`. ## Provenance of backfilled files This mirror was created on 2026-07-10. Files below were first committed to the (private) build repository before the mirror existed; their original commit timestamps are recorded here because git history does not transfer: | file | original commit (build repo) | committed at (UTC) | |---|---|---| | `forecasts/2026-07-09.json` | `6e291238d5f40bfcfd7bc47039493974a59df6ee` | 2026-07-09T03:24:47Z | Every file after this table's date is committed here directly by the daily forecast workflow at creation time, except where a dated provenance note below says otherwise. ## Provenance note: public mirror auth gap, 2026-07-11 to 2026-07-17 The daily workflow step that pushes this mirror was rejected with HTTP 403 (a lapsed push credential) on every scheduled run from 2026-07-10 through 2026-07-17. The 2026-07-10 file reached the mirror through a same-day manual restore (see the commit history); the files for 2026-07-11 through 2026-07-17 did not appear here when they were created. This was an authentication lapse, not data loss. Every one of those files was committed on time to the private build repository by the same pipeline run that created its forecasts, and each of those commits predates every forecast window the file contains. Those commits are the authori …