SwissTPH/llin-impact-tanzania

R scripts for retrospective impact evaluation of LLINs using routine surveillance data and interrupted time series analysis. # llin-impact-tanzania R scripts for retrospective impact evaluation of LLINs using routine surveillance data and interrupted time series analysis. This repository contains the R code used to reproduce the analyses presented in the manuscript: > **Using Routine Health Facility Data to Evaluate the Retrospective Impact of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets in Mainland Tanzania** ## Overview This study retrospectively evaluates the epidemiological impact of the 2020 long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) mass distribution campaign in mainland Tanzania using routine health facility surveillance data. The analysis applies interrupted time series methods using dynamic regression models with ARIMA errors to estimate the counterfactual malaria incidence that would have been expected in the absence of the campaign. The difference between the observed and predicted incidence is used to estimate the number and proportion of malaria cases/1,000 population averted. Analyses were conducted independently for each council using routinely collected surveillance data together with environmental and health system covariates. ## Data The analyses use multiple data sources including: - Routine malaria surveillance data from the Tanzania DHIS2/Health Management Information System (HMIS) - Council-level ITN access estimates (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) - CHIRPS rainfall data - MODIS NDVI - Landsat-derived land surface temperature - Health facility reporting completeness indicator - Total outpatient attendance at health facility Data from routine HMIS/DHIS2 are not publicly available and were obtained with request from the National Malaria Control Programme of mainland Tanzania. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data and permission can be obtained with reasonable request from the Ministry of Health of mainland Tanzania. Therefore, this repository does not contain the raw surveillance data. ## Analysis workflow The analytical workflow consists of the follow …