tekamek123/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia ## Overview A comprehensive forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods. Built for Selam Analytics and their consortium of stakeholders including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. ## Business Context Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation: - **Telebirr**: 54+ million users since 2021 launch - **M-Pesa**: 10+ million users since 2023 market entry - **Digital P2P transfers**: Now surpass ATM cash withdrawals - **Current Challenge**: Only 49% of Ethiopian adults have financial accounts (2024 Global Findex) ## Project Objectives ### Primary Questions 1. What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia? 2. How do events (product launches, policy changes, infrastructure investments) affect inclusion outcomes? 3. How did financial inclusion rates change in 2025 and what are the projections for 2026-2027? ### Core Indicators (World Bank Global Findex Framework) #### Access - Account Ownership Rate > "The share of adults (age 15+) who report having an account (by themselves or together with someone else) at a bank or another type of financial institution or report personally using a mobile money service in the past 12 months." **Ethiopia's Trajectory:** | Year | Account Ownership | Change | |------|-------------------|---------| | 2011 | 14% | — | | 2014 | 22% | +8pp | | 2017 | 35% | +13pp | | 2021 | 46% | +11pp | | 2024 | 49% | +3pp | #### Usage - Digital Payment Adoption Rate > "The share of adults who report using mobile money, a debit or credit card, or a mobile phone to make a payment from an account, or report using the internet to pay bills or to buy something online, in the past 12 months." **Ethiopia's 2024 Indicators:** - Mobile money account ownership: 9.45% - Made or received digital payment: ~35% - Used account to receive wages: ~15% ## Data Structure ### Primary Dataset: …