themavericksr/EV-Adoptability

The notebook host the work done towards the paper: Bridging Policy, Infrastructure, and Innovation: A Causal and Predictive Analysis of Electric Vehicle Integration Across Africa, China, and the EU. # ev-adoptability-analysis **Causal and predictive analysis of electric vehicle integration across Africa, China, and the EU.** Quantitative codebase supporting the paper: > Nsan, N., Obi, C., & Etuk, E. (2025). Bridging policy, infrastructure, and innovation: a causal and predictive analysis of electric vehicle integration across Africa, China, and the EU. Sustainability, 17(12), 5449.* --- ## Overview This repository contains the full analytical pipeline for a multi-method study of electric vehicle (EV) adoption feasibility across three distinct regulatory and infrastructure environments: Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and the European Union. The study combines **machine learning prediction**, **econometric causal inference**, and **time series analysis** to answer two core questions: 1. **What drives EV adoption feasibility?** — Which policy, infrastructure, and energy mix variables most strongly predict EV market share? 2. **Does causality hold?** — Are those relationships causal (panel fixed effects) or merely associative? --- ## Methodology The analysis proceeds in five stages: ### 1. Feature Engineering & Composite Feasibility Score Raw panel data is loaded for each entity (country/region) across multiple years. Two derived features are constructed: **Charger Station Density (CSD):** ``` CSD = Charging Infrastructures / Population Density (per km²) × 100,000 ``` This normalises charger counts for population and geographic spread — a more meaningful metric than raw infrastructure counts. **Subsidy encoding:** The categorical `Subsidies and Tax Exemption` field is binary-encoded (Yes = 1, No = 0) for compatibility with regression models. **PCA-based Feasibility Score:** A composite EV readiness index is constructed from three indicators: - `EVAR (%)` — EV adoption rate - `CSD` — charger density (derived above) - `RES (%)` — renewable energy share in the electricity mix These are standardised and compressed to a single principal component via PCA, t …