thepechkdi/Morocco-Oil-Energy-Security

Econometric analysis of global oil shocks on Morocco's energy security # 🇲🇦 Morocco: Global Oil Shocks & Energy Security **An econometric and policy-driven analysis of how global oil price shocks shape Morocco's energy security, fiscal stability, and transition readiness.** --- ## Abstract Morocco stands at a critical crossroads: a net oil importer with historically high energy subsidy burdens, facing recurrent global oil price cycles that reverberate across its trade balance, public finances, and macroeconomic stability. This project delivers a rigorous, data-driven examination of how external oil shocks — from the 2008 commodity super-cycle to the post-COVID demand surge and the 2022 Ukraine war-driven spike — have propagated through Morocco's economy. Using econometric modelling, time-series decomposition, and policy scenario analysis, the study quantifies Morocco's import dependency, maps subsidy cost trajectories, and assesses vulnerabilities in the trade balance. The analysis concludes with forward-looking policy recommendations centred on renewable energy acceleration, strategic reserve management, and structural reforms necessary for Morocco to reduce its petrostate exposure and meet its ambitious green hydrogen and solar transition targets by 2030. --- ## Table of Contents 1. Project Overview 2. Project Structure 3. Methodology 4. Data Sources 5. Requirements & Installation 6. How to Run 7. Outputs & Figures 8. License 9. Author --- ## Project Overview | Attribute | Detail | |------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | **Domain** | Energy Economics / Policy Analysis | | **Geography** | Kingdom of Morocco (MENA region context) | | **Time Period** | 2000 – 2024 | | **Methods** | Time-series analysis, OLS regression, scenario modelling | | **Tools** | Python, Pandas, Statsmodels, Plotly, Scikit-learn | …