Tosinvincible2017/lcca-nigeria

Python-based Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) tool evaluating five energy system configurations — Grid Only, Grid+Solar, Grid+Solar+Battery, and hybrid diesel variants — across Nigeria's four NERC tariff bands (A–D). Computes NPC, LCOE, and LOLP over a 25-year horizon with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. # LCCA Nigeria: Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Residential & Commercial Energy Systems > A Python-based LCCA software tool evaluating five energy system configurations across Nigeria's four NERC tariff bands (A–D) — computing Net Present Cost (NPC), Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), and Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) over a 25-year horizon. Includes Monte Carlo simulation (n=1,000), one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis, and tornado charts. --- ## System Configurations Evaluated | # | Configuration | Grid | Solar PV | Battery | Diesel | |---|---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | 1 | Grid Only | ✓ | | | | | 2 | Grid + Solar | ✓ | ✓ | | | | 3 | Grid + Solar + Battery | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | | | 4 | Grid + Solar + Battery + Diesel | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | | 5 | Solar + Battery + Diesel (off-grid) | | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | --- ## NERC Tariff Bands | Band | Daily Supply | LOLP | Residential Tariff | |------|-------------|------|-------------------| | A | ≥ 20 hrs/day | 25.00% | ₦225/kWh | | B | 16–20 hrs/day | 37.50% | ₦63/kWh | | C | 12–16 hrs/day | 58.33% | ₦50/kWh | | D | < 12 hrs/day | 70.83% | ₦34/kWh | --- ## Key Findings ### Residential Consumers **Band A** — Grid + Solar is optimal at ₦52.30M NPC, a **38.3% saving** over Grid Only (₦84.80M). Solar provides 45.7% of energy. **Band B** — Grid + Solar remains optimal at ₦16.05M, a **22.2% saving**. Solar contribution rises to 52.6% as grid reliability falls. **Band C** — Grid + Solar optimal at ₦8.32M (**12.4% saving**). Solar reaches 80.8% contribution. Battery storage costs 154% more for only 5.76pp LOLP improvement — decisively uneconomical. **Band D** — Counterintuitively, **Grid Only** (₦6.23M) is optimal. Extremely low tariffs mean solar capital cost cannot be recovered, creating a structural energy poverty trap. ### Commercial Consumers All trends mirror residential findings at a consistent **2.9× scale multiplier**, confirming scale-invariant cost structure. VoLL-adjusted analysis reverses Band C optimal to Grid + Solar + Battery + …