ujjwalks96/Wildfire-Dynamics-SouthEastAfrica

Decadal wildfire, atmospheric emissions and forest cover loss analysis for Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique using MODIS MCD64A1, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI and Hansen GFC via Google Earth Engine # Wildfire Dynamics, Atmospheric Emissions and Forest Cover Loss in Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique ## A Decadal Multi-Source Remote Sensing Analysis (2015-2024) Study Area: Zambia  -  Tanzania  -  Malawi  -  Mozambique   |   Period: 2015-2024 (Fire, Atmosphere)  ;  2015-2023 (Forest)   |   Platform: Google Earth Engine + Python --- ## 1. About This Project This repository presents an integrated, reproducible remote sensing workflow that quantifies **wildfire seasonality**, **biomass burning atmospheric emissions**, and **forest cover loss** across four fire-active nations of southern-eastern Africa : Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique over a decade of satellite observations. The analysis fuses three independently validated satellite data streams: - **MODIS MCD64A1**: 500m monthly burned area (2015–2024, 120 months) - **Sentinel-5P TROPOMI** : CO, NO₂ and Absorbing Aerosol Index (2018–2024, 84 months) - **Hansen Global Forest Change v1.11**: Annual 30m forest loss (2015–2023) All data acquisition, analysis, visualisation, and interactive mapping are implemented in a single Google Colab notebook using the GEE Python API. --- ## 2. Key Statistics at a Glance | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | **10-year total burned area** | 5,920,370 km² (all 4 countries) | | **Annual mean burned area** | 592,037 km²/year | | **Peak fire month** | September : 165,000 km²/month average | | **Core fire season** | July - October (>85% of annual burned area) | | **CO-fire correlation** | r = −0.70 to −0.82 (Sentinel-5P vs MODIS) | | **Cumulative forest loss** | 64,374 km² (2015–2023, all 4 countries) | | **Highest forest loss** | Mozambique: 25,153 km² absolute | | **Highest proportional loss** | Malawi: up to 1.22%/year of 2000 forest area | | **Forest trend** | Rising OLS trend in all 4 countries | | **Fire-forest nexus** | r = −0.84 (Zambia), −0.81 (Tanzania), −0. …