Vain-Guy/Mapping-Africa-s-Conflict-Relationships

Violence isn’t just numbers, it’s people, power, and patterns. This project uncovers the actors behind unrest across the continent (1997–2014), tracing alliances, enmities, and the human cost of conflict. It challenges silence with data, empowering advocates, researchers, and changemakers to confront injustice with insight # Mapping Africa's Conflict Relationships (1997-2014) ## Example Scenario: Ground-Level Relevance > **Fatima**, a field coordinator for an international NGO in the Sahel, is tasked with preparing a conflict-risk report for an upcoming health deployment in **northern Mali**. > Her concern isn’t just *whether* violence is happening—it’s **who’s behind it**, **who’s being targeted**, and **whether this pattern is intensifying**. > By analyzing dyadic conflict data, she learns that: > - **Actor1**: *Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM)* > - **Actor2**: *Malian Military Forces* > - Have been in repeated confrontations in the region > - With a **recent surge in frequency and fatalities** > This insight allows Fatima to: > - Reroute medical supply chains > - Brief her team on security vulnerabilities > - Advocate for localized ceasefire diplomacy > - And avoid deploying staff into a rapidly escalating zone > **The result?** A faster, smarter humanitarian response—**before** the next flashpoint ignites. ### Project Summary In Africa’s conflict zones, it’s not just about what happened - it’s about **who keeps fighting whom**. This project explores over a decade of conflict data from the **ACLED Dyadic dataset**, focusing on recurring conflict relationships (dyads), escalation trends, and high-risk actors. We turn raw conflict data into actionable insights for **NGOs, peacebuilders, analysts, and policy teams**. ## Deliverables - Cleaned + enriched dataset (dyad IDs, actor normalizations, regional splits) - Escalation curves by dyad - Hotspot heatmaps (regional volatility maps) - Network graphs of actor relationships - Dyadic Risk Score (composite index: frequency × intensity × recency) - Interactive visualizations + summary notebooks ## Key Insights - A small number of actor dyads account for most repeated violence. - Conflict intensity is highly skewed; most events cluster in a few regions. - Certain actors (e.g. state forces, rebel coalitions) act as **con …