vhalulu/drought-nutrition-mediation

Stata workflow analyzing how drought affects child malnutrition in Kenya's ASAL counties via food consumption pathways, using NDMA household survey and satellite NDVI/temperature data (2016–2024). # Drought, Food Consumption, and Child Malnutrition in Kenya's ASAL Counties **National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) — Kenya** --- ## Overview This repository contains the replication code for a study analyzing how drought affects child malnutrition in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) counties through food consumption pathways. Using ward-level panel data from NDMA household assessments (2016–2024), satellite-derived vegetation and temperature indices, and WHO-standardized MUAC z-scores, the analysis estimates both the total effect of drought on child nutrition and the share mediated through six food consumption channels. **Counties covered:** Samburu, Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Turkana, Baringo, Garissa **Study period:** 2016–2024 (monthly observations) **Unit of analysis:** Ward-month (1,541 observations across 25 wards) --- ## Research Question Does drought reduce child nutritional status, and if so, through which food consumption pathways does this effect operate? --- ## Empirical Strategy ### Drought Measurement Drought is measured using seasonally standardized NDVI z-scores derived from eVIIRS satellite data. Two drought exposure variables are constructed: - **Recent drought** — average of months 0–2 (current and 2-month lag) - **Distant drought** — average of months 3–6 (3 to 6-month lag) ### Outcome Child nutritional status is measured by MUAC (mid-upper arm circumference) z-scores, standardized using WHO 2007 guidelines. Malnutrition categories: normal (z ≥ −1), at risk (−2 ≤ z < −1), moderate acute malnutrition/MAM (−3 ≤ z < −2), severe acute malnutrition/SAM (z < −3). ### Mediation Analysis For each of six food groups (milk, meat, grains, pulses/nuts, fruits, vegetables), the analysis estimates: 1. **First stage:** Effect of drought on food consumption days per week 2. **Mediation model:** Effect of drought on MUAC z-scores controlling for food consumption 3. **Sobel test:** Statistical significance of the indirect (mediated) ef …