wnwamalwa/kenya-io-model

# Kenya Input-Output Model for Sectoral Analysis A prototype Leontief input-output model for Kenya's economy, constructed with official production accounts data from the **KNBS Economic Survey 2025**. ## Overview The model estimates inter-sectoral production linkages across eight aggregated sectors of the Kenyan economy using a demand-driven input-output framework. It provides a quantitative basis for assessing sectoral spillovers from fiscal stimulus and structural transformation strategies. ## Analytical Scope - **Inter-sectoral linkages** — technical coefficients and Leontief inverse estimation - **Output multipliers** — total economy-wide output per unit increase in sectoral final demand - **Backward and forward linkages** — Rasmussen–Hirschman classification of key sectors - **Demand shock simulation** — spillover effects of a 10% Manufacturing expansion - **Policy-relevant insights** — implications for industrial strategy, agro-industrial linkages, and infrastructure investment ## Key Findings - Manufacturing exhibits the highest intermediate consumption ratio (0.68), confirming deep inter-industry linkages and its potential as a driver of aggregate output growth. - A 10% positive demand shock in Manufacturing generates measurable spillover effects across all sectors, with Agriculture and Transport capturing the largest indirect impacts. - Agriculture remains the dominant GDP contributor (22.5% in 2024) and plays a critical upstream supply role in the production system. ## Data Source Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2025). *Economic Survey 2025*. Nairobi, Kenya. Tables 2.1, 2.4, 2.6. ISBN: 978-9966-102-49-2. ## Usage ```r # Open in RStudio and knit rmarkdown::render("kenya_io_model.Rmd") ``` **Requirements:** `ggplot2`, `reshape2` ## Repository Structure ``` kenya-io-model/ ├── kenya_io_model.Rmd # Source R Markdown ├── docs/ │ └── index.html # Rendered report (GitHub Pages) ├── README.md ├── .gitignore └── IO_model.Rproj ``` …