yasante7/forest_stock_optimization

LaTeX manuscript and scripts for dynamic optimization and empirical analysis of forest management and carbon policy in Ghana. # Forest Management Under Carbon Constraints: A Dynamic Optimization Analysis for Ghana This repository contains the complete LaTeX manuscript, data analysis scripts, and optimization results for a research study investigating optimal forest conservation strategies in Ghana. The project integrates historical tree cover loss data from Global Forest Watch (2001–2024) with a dynamic optimization framework to evaluate the trade-offs between agricultural expansion (predominantly cocoa) and ecosystem services. ## Project Objectives 1. **Quantitative Assessment:** Document and analyze historical deforestation patterns in Ghana over the last two decades, disaggregating by driver and region. 2. **Bio-Economic Modeling:** Develop a 100-year dynamic optimization model that accounts for logistic forest growth, carbon sequestration, amenity values, and agricultural opportunity costs. 3. **Policy Simulation:** Identify optimal trajectories for deforestation and reforestation under various carbon pricing and discount rate scenarios. 4. **Threshold Identification:** Determine the critical carbon price thresholds required to shift incentives toward total forest preservation. 5. **Intervention Strategy:** Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of agricultural intensification as a primary lever for reducing land pressure. ## Methodology ### 1. Data Sources * **Global Forest Watch (GFW):** Annual tree cover loss and gain (2001–2024) at 30m resolution. * **Driver Classification:** Machine learning-based attribution (Curtis et al., 2018) identifies 89.7% of loss as commodity-driven agriculture (cocoa). * **Carbon Flux Model:** IPCC Tier 1 emission factors (average 410 Mg CO₂e/ha for clearing) and sequestration rates (1.5 Mg CO₂e/ha/year for regeneration). ### 2. Econometric & Analytical Framework * **Trend Analysis:** Decomposes annual loss into distinct phases: early acceleration (2001-2006), stabilization (2007-2015), and the recent surge (2016-2024). * **Regional Heterog …