Yohannes022/ethiopia-climate-finance-intelligence

# 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Climate Finance & Carbon Market Readiness Intelligence System ## 📌 Project Overview This project is a **data-driven climate finance intelligence system** designed to analyze Ethiopia’s climate finance landscape and assess its readiness for participation in global carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The system integrates real-world datasets, performs multi-layer analysis, and produces policy-relevant insights to support decision-making ahead of COP32. --- ## 🎯 Objectives * Analyze climate finance flows to Ethiopia (2015–2024) * Identify donor dependencies and sector allocation patterns * Evaluate climate finance alignment (adaptation vs mitigation) * Assess carbon market readiness * Model future scenarios for climate finance growth * Generate policy recommendations and strategic insights --- ## 🧠 System Architecture This project is structured into five key layers: 1. **Data Engineering Layer** * Multi-year OECD CRS dataset ingestion (2015–2024) * Chunk-based processing for large-scale data * Data cleaning, normalization, and transformation 2. **Data Processing & Feature Engineering** * Climate tagging (Adaptation vs Mitigation) * Sector mapping * Donor and recipient structuring 3. **Analytics Layer** * Climate finance trends * Donor dependency analysis * Sector distribution analysis * Climate finance alignment 4. **Forecasting & Scenario Modeling** * Time-series forecasting using Prophet * Scenario simulations: * Business-as-usual * Policy improvement * Carbon market expansion 5. **Policy Intelligence Layer** * Carbon Market Readiness Score * Risk analysis (dependency, misalignment) * Policy recommendations aligned with COP32 --- ## 📊 Key Insights * Climate finance is growing (~8.7% annually) * High donor concentration (~70% from top 2 donors) * Only ~13% of funding is climate-targeted * Significant funding directed to emergency response * Adaptation-focused financing dominates over mitigation --- ## 🔮 Scenari …