yordanos64/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ### 10 Academy Challenge - Week 11 Milestone Project An interactive time-series forecasting system tracking Ethiopia's digital financial transformation trajectory across World Bank Global Findex benchmarks (2025–2027). --- ## 📊 Forecast Predictions Summary (2025 - 2027) | Metric Focus | 2024 Baseline | 2025 Forecast | 2026 Forecast | 2027 Target Forecast | | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | **Access** (Account Ownership %) | 49.00% | **52.12%** | **55.25%** | **58.38%** | | **Usage** (Digital Payments %) | 35.00% | **39.50%** | **44.00%** | **48.50%** | --- ## ⚙️ Project Architecture Layout ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Contains source data spreadsheets │ └── processed/ # Stores clean datasets & enrichment proxies ├── src/ │ ├── data_enrichment.py # Task 1 Enrichment Engine │ └── time_series_model.py # Task 2 Trend Regression Predictor ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Task 3 Streamlit App Interface (Live) └── tests/ └── test_data_processing.py # Task 4 Automated Schema Validation ``` --- ## 🎯 Key Strategic Market Insights * **P2P Velocity Outpacing Infrastructure**: Interoperable peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers have successfully surpassed ATM physical cash withdrawals across Ethiopia. * **Enabler Catalysts Injected**: Integrated national infrastructure trackers (such as Fayda ID national registration expansion and localized agent network density scaling) serve as key structural inputs for upcoming access growth loops. ## 🗂️ Deepened Schema & Enrichment Documentation The project processes an unbiased, unified timeline databank structure across three core record mappings: * **Observations**: Hard ground-truth parameters derived from World Bank demand surveys, active operator logs, and infrastructure reports. * **Events**: Non-pre-assigned operational intervention points (such as policy declarations, regional infrastructure drops, and service roll …