YudhirD/sa-outage-risk-intelligence

Interactive data science dashboard for South African municipal outage risk intelligence # Municipal Outage Risk Intelligence An interactive data science portfolio project focused on a real South African problem: power interruptions that cascade into water delivery failures, clinic disruption, and lost trading time for small businesses. The app presents a recruiter-friendly end-to-end workflow: problem framing, risk scoring, intervention modelling, executive KPIs, prioritised municipalities, and operational recommendations. ## Why This Problem Matters South Africa's electricity instability has caused significant economic damage, with the OECD noting that outages have affected growth even as load shedding declined in 2024. Research on South African communities also shows that load shedding can disrupt scheduled water delivery, household activity, local businesses, and municipal coordination. References used to frame the project: - OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa 2025, electricity sector reform. - MDPI Water, 2024: load-shedding impact on scheduled water delivery services in Greater Tzaneen. - Water Research Commission reporting on power outages affecting South Africa's water supply chain. ## What The App Does - Scores municipalities from 0 to 100 using interpretable risk features. - Estimates people exposed, clinics at risk, and weekly SME revenue exposure. - Compares risk under a mitigation scenario. - Ranks municipalities for operational triage. - Shows weekly demand pressure and intervention portfolio charts. - Provides clear response recommendations per municipality. ## Model Design This is an explainable decision-support prototype, not a black-box model. The scoring function combines: - load-shedding stage pressure - water infrastructure fragility - electrical grid fragility - maintenance backlog - poverty exposure - solar readiness - pump storage hours - mitigation levers such as mobile batteries, water buffers, and maintenance teams The synthetic municipal dataset is embedded in the app so it runs without a database or API key. The …