yusuf302/tanzania-growth-analysis

Stata-based econometric analysis of government spending and economic growth in Tanzania (2000–2024) # tanzania-growth-analysis Stata-based econometric analysis of government spending and economic growth in Tanzania (2000–2024) # Impact of Government Spending on Economic Growth in Tanzania ## Overview This project analyzes the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Tanzania using annual time-series data from 2000 to 2024. The analysis replicates a simple econometric framework and applies diagnostic testing and robustness checks to ensure reliable inference. ## Data Source: World Bank (World Development Indicators) Variables: - GDP growth (annual %) - Government expenditure (% of GDP) - Inflation (annual %) ## Methodology Baseline model: GDP_t = β0 + β1 GEXP_t + β2 INF_t + ε_t ### Estimation Strategy - Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) - Robust standard errors - Lagged time-series model - Newey-West correction (for autocorrelation robustness) ### Diagnostic Tests - Multicollinearity (Variance Inflation Factor) - Heteroskedasticity (Breusch–Pagan test) - Autocorrelation (Breusch–Godfrey, Durbin–Watson) - Residual normality test ## Key Findings - Government expenditure has a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP growth - Inflation has a negative but statistically insignificant effect - Results remain consistent across alternative specifications ## Outputs - Regression tables: `output/final_results.txt` - Time-series plots: `output/trends.png` - Full replication log: `log/analysis.log` ## Reproducibility To replicate results: 1. Open `do/analysis.do` in Stata 2. Set working directory 3. Run the script ## Author Yusuf Abdallah Jongo Master’s Student in Economics GitHub: github.com