zerubabelalpha/Ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ## Overview This repository contains a comprehensive **Financial Inclusion Forecasting System for Ethiopia**. It provides data-driven insights into the drivers of financial inclusion and predicts future rates for **Access** (Account Ownership) and **Usage** (Digital Payment Adoption) for the period 2025-2030. The system uses historical data from Global Findex, EthSwitch, and Telebirr, combined with evidence-based impact modeling of policy events (e.g., Telebirr launch, Fayda Digital ID, EthioPay interoperability). ## Key Features * **Data Enrichment:** Integrated NBE stability reports, operator data, and policy event logs. * **Impact Analysis:** Modeled the effect of key events on financial indicators using linear and log-linear approaches. * **Predictive Modeling:** Trend-augmented and event-augmented forecasting with 95% confidence intervals. * **Scenario Analysis:** Optimistic, Base, and Pessimistic projections based on policy implementation. * **Interactive Dashboard:** Streamlit-powered visualization tool for stakeholder exploration. * **CI/CD:** Automated testing suite via GitHub Actions. ## Project Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── dashboard/ # Interactive Streamlit Application │ └── app.py # Simplified single-file dashboard ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Enriched unified dataset and reference codes │ └── processed/ # Generated forecast results (CSV) ├── notebooks/ # Analysis and modeling notebooks │ ├── data_exploration.ipynb │ ├── financial_inclusion_analysis.ipynb │ ├── event_indicator_impact_analysis.ipynb │ └── financial_inclusion_forecast.ipynb ├── reports/ # Analysis reports and visualizations ├── scripts/ # Utility scripts for data extraction ├── src/ # Core model and forecast logic │ ├── impact_model_utils.py # Impact modeling functions │ └── forec …