Green technology integration and sustainable development in Nigeria: A comparative ARDL-QARDL analysis

This study investigates how green technology integration affects sustainable development in Nigeria between 1986 and 2023. Existing studies in Nigeria mostly utilize mean-based estimators, which dampen distributional heterogeneity. However, this study uses a dual-econometric model that involves the combination of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) models. The ARDL model analyzes the average short- and long-run relationships while QARDL model addresses asymmetric and heterogeneous effects across sustainability quantiles. The ARDL findings indicate a fast-adjusting process to equilibrium, with green technology portraying a significant positive short-run effect on sustainable development, while carbon emissions and financial development exert negative impacts. Long-run sustainability is mainly driven by innovation and ICT diffusion, thereby supporting the ecological modernisation theory. Additionally, the QARDL findings indicate that the effects differ across sustainability regimes, with green technology having weak impacts at lower quantiles but becoming more beneficial as sustainability performance advances. The study concludes that inclusive sustainability in Nigeria is regime-bound. Policymakers should sustain the development of green technologies, innovation-driven industries, and digital transformation, coupled with financial reforms that streamline credit to environmentally favorable activities.