Guns or Butter: Decision Support for Determining the Size and Shape of the South African National Defense Force

In January of 1994, the chief of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) asked the question: “In the absence of a conventional military threat, what should the size and shape of the SANDF be?” A joint SANDF and Deloitte and Touche team supported the joint strategic management process (JSMP) with OR/MS based decision support models. The team created the following models: a risk model of the probability and potential impact of various defense contingencies, a growth model of growth potential of force structure elements, a cost model (zero based), a mixed-integer-programming model of all the relationships, and a manual model allowing the user to select different tasks and strategies. The project resulted in a saving on the approved force design (size and shape) of more than 22 percent. The results indicate clear opportunities for major additional savings.