Heavy rainfall events similar to the August 2025 Lagos floods are up to +6 mm/day heavier and up to +0.4 °C warmer in the present climate than they would have been 30 years in the past, particularly prior to 1987. This is obtained not only across the Lagos coastal zone but across the broader Gulf of Guinea region.
The August 2025 Lagos floods were driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions.
We ascribe the heavy precipitation associated with the August 2025 floods to human-driven climate change, and natural climate variability likely played a modest/minor role.