How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?

Abstract Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense.