Identifying and predicting climate change impact on vector-borne disease using machine learning: Case study of Plasmodium falciparum from Africa

Abstract. Vector-borne diseases pose a significant threat to human health, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate change. Among these diseases, malaria, caused by the parasite Plasmodium falciparum and transmitted through the Anopheles mosquito, remains a major global health concern, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study explores the use of machine learning techniques to identify and predict the impact of climate change on the transmission dynamics of P. falciparum malaria in Africa.The research utilizes a combination of climate data, epidemiological records, and machine learning algorithms to analyze historical patterns and project future trends in malaria transmission. Key climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, and vegetation cover are integrated into predictive models to assess their influence on the abundance and distribution of mosquito vectors and the parasite's lifecycle. Through the application of machine learning models such as Maximum Entropy, this study aims to uncover complex relationships between climatic factors and malaria transmission dynamics. By training these models on historical data, they can accurately predict future scenarios under various climate change scenarios. The findings of this research will provide valuable insights into the potential impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal distribution of P. falciparum malaria in Africa. Such insights are crucial for designing targeted interventions and adaptation strategies to mitigate the anticipated rise in malaria cases and associated morbidity and mortality in the region. Moreover, the methodology developed in this study can serve as a framework for assessing and addressing the impact of climate change on other vector-borne diseases globally.