Illuminating the Shadows: Assessing Compliance and Effectiveness in Marine Protected Areas Using Satellite and Vessel Tracking Data

Datasets and Code for the article "Illuminating the Shadows: Assessing Compliance and Effectiveness in Marine Protected Areas Using Satellite and Vessel Tracking Data" Abstract Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are a central instrument for marine conservation and the sustainable management of marine resources. This study examines the behavior and spatial dynamics of industrial fishing vessels around MPAs using global high-frequency vessel monitoring data. Leveraging a regression discontinuity design, we evaluate compliance by analyzing vessel presence inside MPAs using both Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and satellite-based detections. The results indicate that MPAs significantly reduce industrial fishing activity within their boundaries, with effects increasing with the level of protection. These findings are robust across both AIS and satellite imagery. Heterogeneous effects emerge in regions such as Indonesia, the Horn of Africa, and the Central Caribbean—areas characterized by high piracy risk, favorable fishing conditions, and a greater prevalence of non-publicly tracked vessels. We further find that fishing effort declines within less productive MPAs, while no significant effects are observed in more productive ones. Finally, larger MPAs and those located farther from piracy-prone regions exhibit stronger deterrence effects on industrial fishing activity.