IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION APPROACH

This research examined the impacts of population growth on food security in Nigeria. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and World Development Indicators for the period of 1981-2024. The study employed trend analysis, ARDL long run model and VECM short run model. The result from the trend analysis showed that, Nigeria’s population growth rate has been decreasing from 2.8% in 1982 to 2.4% in 2024, while food security grows steadily over the years. The unit root test result shows that the variables in the model are stationary at different levels (I(0) and I(1)), while the ARDL showed the existence of co integration. The long-run model estimates showed that a one unit increase in population growth will lead to a 1.93 unit increases in food security in long run, while the short run result showed that a one unit increase in population growth will lead to 1.018 unit increase in food security in the short run, but population growth in the previous year (∆PGR (-1)) led to a decrease of 0.657 unit in food security. The study concludes that population growth has a significant impact on food security in the nation and therefore recommended the strengthening of human capital for food system resilience by expanding access to education, agricultural training and nutrition awareness.