Impact of Vaccine Failure on the Transmission Dynamics of Measles in Nigeria

Abstract Measles is a vaccine preventable disease. However, it is still a major public health challenge in Nigeria.We therefore formulate a mathematical model for the transmission of measles with a two dose vaccination strategy and weaning of vaccine derived immunity. Using weekly measles cases for Nigeria in 2020 from the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC), the model was validated. This modelling study via numerical simulations showed that there is a possibility of disease control with a ten fold increase in the vaccination rates. Also, it was shown that primary vaccine failure has more impact on disease dynamics than secondary vaccine failure. Thus control strategies should not just focus on increase the vaccination rates but also look at measures that will help in reducing primary vaccine failure.