Impact of Weather Factors on Migration Intention Using Machine Learning Algorithms

International audience A growing attention in the empirical literature has been paid on the incidence of climate shocks and change on migration decisions. Previous literature leads to different results and uses a multitude of traditional empirical approaches. This paper proposes a tree-based Machine Learning (ML) approach to analyze the role of the weather shocks toward an individual’s intention to migrate in the six agriculture-dependent-economy countries such as Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. We performed several tree-based algorithms (e.g., XGB, Random Forest) using the train-validation-test workflow to build robust and noise-resistant approaches. Then we determine the important features showing in which direction they influence the migration intention. This ML-based estimation accounts for features such as weather shocks captured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for different timescales and various socioeconomic features/covariates. We find that (i) the weather features improve the prediction performance, although socioeconomic characteristics have more influence on migration intentions, (ii) a country-specific model is necessary, and (iii) the international move is influenced more by the longer timescales of SPEIs while general move (which includes internal move) by that of shorter timescales.