Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Service Values: A Case Study of Lagos Metropolis, Southern Nigeria

Rapid urban expansion and population growth are accelerating the conversion of natural ecosystems into built-up areas, threatening the ecosystem services that support environmental quality and human well-being. Despite these concerns, quantitative assessments linking land use and land cover (LULC) change to ecosystem service values (ESV) remain limited in Lagos, Nigeria's commercial hub and one of Africa's most populous cities. This study evaluated the impacts of LULC change on ESV in Lagos Metropolis between 1984 and 2025 using multi-temporal Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. ESV was estimated using the benefit transfer approach with globally established valuation coefficients. The classified LULC maps achieved high overall accuracies of 91% (1984), 92% (2013), and 90% (2025). The results revealed substantial landscape transformation characterized by rapid urban expansion and long-term vegetation loss between 1984 and 2025, despite a modest recovery in forest cover between 2013 and 2025. Built-up areas increased from 16,337 ha in 1984 to 60,018 ha in 2025 (267.3%), while forest and sparse vegetation declined by 60.0% and 63.7%, respectively. Water bodies decreased slightly (6.5%). These changes reduced the total ESV from approximately US$435.57 million in 1984 to US$370.37 million in 2025, representing a net loss of US$65.20 million (14.97%). Water bodies remained the largest contributors to total ecosystem service value, whereas forests experienced the greatest decline in ecosystem service value. These findings demonstrate that accelerated urbanization has altered ecological structure and diminished ecosystem service benefits, highlighting the need for sustainable urban planning and ecosystem conservation in Lagos and other rapidly urbanizing African megacities.