Industrial Sector Performance and Human Development in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Time Series Analysis

This study examined the relationship between industrial sector performance and human development in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1981–2024. The industrial sector was disaggregated into four core subsectors: manufacturing, crude oil and natural gas, construction, and electricity. Data for the study were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Reports, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). The study applied Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration test, and the ARDL estimation technique. The unit root test indicated that the variables were integrated of mixed orders, I(0) and I(1), while the bounds test established a long run relationship among the variables. The ARDL estimates revealed that manufacturing and crude oil and natural gas outputs exert positive and statistically significant effects on the Human Development Index (HDI) in both the short and long run. Furthermore, construction output exhibits a significant positive effect on HDI only in the short run, whereas electricity generation exerts a positive and statistically significant effect in the long run. The study concludes that industrial sector performance plays a vital role in improving human development in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommends policies that ensure the productive utilization of oil and gas revenues for human capital development, promote investment in social infrastructure, and improve electricity infrastructure to support long-term human development.