Industrialization, Economic Growth, and Food Security in The Gambia: An ARDL Approach

This paper examines the long-run and short-run effects of industrialization, economic growth and agricultural land use on food security in The Gambia. A time-series analysis of annual data 1970-2023 is done in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. Our findings found that industrialization imposes a long-run negative effect on food security in The Gambia through structural changes in non-agricultural activities. GDP per capita is found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on food production, implying that economic growth increases food security through income levels and production capacity. Agricultural land is observed to have a negative long-run impact due to land degradation, urban sprawl and ineffective land use. The dynamics in the short-run suggest that adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium occurs, as the error-correction term is statistically significant and negative. The results suggest the necessity of balanced development policies that support the industrialization process without undermining the productivity of the agricultural industry. We also recommend policymakers in The Gambia to promote Sustainable land use, modernized Agriculture, and inclusive growth to enhance food security in The Gambia.