INTELLIGENCE FAILURES AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT IN AFRICA: A CASE STUDY OF THE BOKO HARAM INSURGENCY IN NIGERIA

The Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria represents one of the most devastating and persistent security challenges in Africa that is characterized by widespread violence, mass displacement, and regional destabilization. This study investigates the critical role of intelligence failures in the persistence and escalation of the insurgency, and assesses how these shortcomings have undermined national and regional conflict management strategies. The study employed a qualitative case study approach, the paper explores the nature, scope, and implications of intelligence lapses ranging from poor strategic foresight and inadequate technological capacity to weak inter-agency coordination and fragmented institutional frameworks. These deficiencies have significantly contributed to Boko Haram’s operational success, resilience, and territorial expansion across northeastern Nigeria and into neighboring countries. The study further evaluates Nigeria’s counterinsurgency responses, including conventional military operations, multinational joint task force (MNJTF) efforts, and non-military initiatives such as deradicalization programs, peace dialogues, and community-based engagement strategies. The findings reveal that systemic corruption, political interference, and institutional incapacity within Nigeria’s security and intelligence architecture have severely limited early warning systems, timely threat assessment, and coordinated responses. Consequently, these structural weaknesses have hindered sustainable conflict resolution. The paper concludes by recommending comprehensive reforms aimed at strengthening national intelligence capabilities, enhancing inter-agency collaboration, investing in human and technological intelligence assets, and promoting inclusive, locally grounded approaches to conflict prevention and peace building