It is Not Just Boda Bodas: The Unseen Jobs Powering Kenya's Electric Revolution

Kenya's transport sector accounts for 13 percent of national greenhouse gas emissions, yet simultaneously faces a youth unemployment crisis where 9.6 percent of young people remain jobless. The transition to electric mobility presents a rare policy opportunity to address both challenges simultaneously. This study employs a mixed-methods approach combining Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling, value chain analysis, and descriptive statistics from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) administrative data to estimate the employment potential of Kenya's emobility transition. Findings reveal that achieving Kenya's emission reduction target of 3.46 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) in the transport sector could generate 334,503 new jobs by 2030, representing a 20.6 percent increase in employment across transportation, manufacturing, construction, electricity, and wholesale trade sectors. However, less than 2 percent of these projected jobs meet International Labour Organization (ILO) decent work standards. The study identifies critical constraints including inadequate charging infrastructure (only 33 public stations as of 2023), underdeveloped local manufacturing capacity, financing barriers, skills gaps in EV maintenance, and the absence of end-of-life battery management policies. The study recommends an integrated policy framework addressing local value addition, workforce development, gender-inclusive employment strategies, and regulatory reforms to ensure that Kenya's green transition delivers both environmental sustainability and quality employment.