Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Stocks in Kebbi State, Nigeria (2005–2025): Remote Sensing Assessment

Land use and land cover (LULC) change drives terrestrial carbon fluxes in rapidly developing areas, but Nigeria's Sudan Savanna's spatiotemporal carbon dynamics are poorly researched and spatially characterized. This study examines the impact of landscape change on carbon stock distribution in Kebbi State's 41,500 km² using remote sensing data (2005-2025) and field-derived carbon densities. Using supervised algorithms, confusion matrices, post-classification comparison, transition matrices, and annual rate computations, Landsat 7/8 and Sentinel-2 images were classified. GIS raster operations and hotspot analysis were used to overlay field calibrated carbon pools onto land use and land cover rasters to analyze carbon redistribution. Classification accuracy sometimes exceeds scientific standards (87.3–89.1%; Kappa: 0.84–0.86). Farmland grew by 8,330 km² (20%), whereas dense vegetation decreased by 1,660 km² (>57% loss). Growth in developed zones tripled (+2,075 km²), while vegetation decreased by 4,120 km². The transition matrix showed that 40.3% of conversions included sparse vegetation becoming farmland and 22.1% thick vegetation becoming farmless. Annual change rates show farmland growth (+2.63%) and vegetation loss (-5.95% for thick cover). GIS and carbon pool estimations show that land use and land cover (LULC) change has redistributed 18–24 Mt C, with 65% of losses from woody ecosystems and 45% of gains from tree-retained agricultural areas. These results set standards for national climate reporting, REDD+ readiness, and spatially explicit land use planning. Strategic agroforestry, vegetation corridor protection, and stability-conscious carbon accounting are needed to balance food security and urban growth with ecological preservation due to the rapid speed of change.